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How will be the next winter ?
What can be expected in the summer ?
Such or similar questions have probably already made a lot of people. Can we look forward to cold, snowy winter months or a lot of hot days for swimming in summer ? Is there a risk of high heating costs druring the cold season ff the next summer, possibly into the water?
The author of these pages would like these questions try to answer as precisely as possible and to bring visitors to the issue of long-term prognosis with their problems in more detail.
Beside the long-term trends for Germany you can find long-range forecasts for some selected stations around the world.
Also there are available climate reviews / -statistics and
extreme values of past months and seasons as well as current
weather data of the private weather station from Leipzig. |
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News / Informations
ATTENTION: The number of visitors
to these sites has increased steadily in recent years, which demonstrates
the great interest of seasonal forecasts.
The published information are free and will remain so for the future.
However, since the amount of work it is not insignificant, and I am
pursuing this work only in passing, I would appreciate a voluntary
donation.
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1. Log in to your PayPal account.
2. Go to "Send money".
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4. Check and confirm your information. Done.
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Supporters of Langfristwetter.com
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Introduction
If you all along want to know
what the weather will be like in the next weeks and months, you are exactly
right on this site.
Of course it is an exciting question whether the coming summer will be warm
and sunny or cool and rainy. My name is Lars Thieme, I live in Leipzig
(Germany) and I have dealt with weather for a long time. Because I always
wanted to know how the weather will turn out during a longer period I came to
the field of long range forecasts. An high-interesting and so far
unfortunately still little considered area which I already have been
investigating intensively for over 10 years.
Especially I try to continue the
investigations and results of Franz Baur who was a pioneer of the long range
forecasts and had published a multiplicity of statistical weather rules. As
far as it is possible I also try to include these rules into the forecasts.
All weather prognoses which go beyond 10 days are called long range forecasts.
The hit probability of the forecasts which are published here amounts around
70 % at present. At the further improvement of this value will be worked
constantly. For my forecasts I especially use two different methods: On the
one hand the calculation of determined sea-level-pressure constellations and
temperature distributions over significant areas of the northern hemisphere
during the previous months and on the other hand the use of generally
scientific weather rules and statistics (e.g. sun spot statistic). I also make
daily graphics of temperature and precipitation which I will present at the
end of the month as a monthly balance for Leipzig. This balance check the hit
probability of the prognosis at the same time. According to these above
described methods the following climatic development (relative to the average
values of the period 1951-2005) for Eastern and Central Germany is to be
expected:
Long Range Forecasts
| Monat |
Normalwert |
Anomalie |
Status |
Wahrscheinlichkeit |
| Jan 2011 |
0.0 °C |
+1.5 K |
moder. mild |
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| Feb 2012 |
0.6 °C |
+2.5 K |
very mild |
| Mär 2012 |
4.1 °C |
-0.5 K |
slightly too cold |
| Apr 2012 |
8.3 °C |
+2.0 K |
very mild |
Explanation: The both columns
"Anomaly" and "Status" are shown the probably anomalies of temperature in K*
(Kelvin) and for less experienced users, the corresponding relative indication.
In the right column you can find informations about the probability of a more
warm, normal or cold month. The boundaries were determined so that a basic
probability of 33% is assumed for the occurrence of a cold, normal and warm
month.
| *+/-1.0 K entspricht +/-1.0° |
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Remark: The October 2011 had a temperature of
10.5°C in Leipzig-Gruenau and thus by +0.5 K slightly too mild and a
precipitation amount of 32 mm (81 %) relatively dry compared with the average
values.
At the official station Leipzig-Schkeuditz the average temperature
had a value of 10.2 °C which means a deviation from +0.6 K in relation to the
period of 1951-2005.
A more detailed forecast for Central Europe you can find on the
main page (german). Verifications of accuracy of the prognoses you can find
here.
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Forecast: January 2012 |
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Due to the great interest has recently been issued for Northern and Southern
Germany, a monthly forecast. However, further predictions are possible for
these regions only to fee-based requests. |
Saisonal trend
Note: The calculated prediction of a
season does not result from the arithmetic mean of the forecasts for the three
individual months but is an independently determined value and can therefore
easily by the average of the monthly forecasts.
| Season |
Forecast Temp |
Forecast Prec |
Forecast error |
| Winter 2011/12 |
+0.9 K |
+2 mm |
1.12 K |
A comparison of the long-term forecasts of
international
meteorological services for Central Europe is also available now.
| Worldwide forecasts |
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The described forecast method (multiple linear
regression) for Germany could also be extended to other areas of the
Northern Hemisphere now. This was only possible by programing automation of
the procedure. For this stations with homogeneous datasets in West / Eastern
Europe (De Bilt, Moskau) and Nord America (New York) were chosen for test
purposes. More information of the forecasting method can you find here
(german). Because of the expended work only the one- and two-monthly
forecasts are published for these stations next time. The calculated
deviations refer to the observation period 1949 - 2001.
For the next two months in 2011 the following deviations are expected:
| Region |
November
2011 |
December 2011 |
|
De Bilt / Netherlands |
0.0 K |
-2.0 K |
|
Moscow / Russia |
+0.5 K |
+1.5 K |
|
New York / USA |
+1.5 K |
-1.5
K |
|
Wien / Austria |
0.0 K |
+0.5 K |
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Your Lars Thieme
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Specification without guarantee! Status
14.06.2011
Next update: 05.07.2011
© by Lars Thieme und Langfristwetter.com
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German version
